Post-Oscars Update: Well, what did I say? ‘A very predictable night with, perhaps, one or two surprises thrown in for good measure.’ The biggest surprise has to be Boyhood losing out in both of the categories most assumed would be guaranteed victories. I could see Linklater’s film losing out on the Best Picture front, but to lose Best Director is very unexpected and upsetting. I should say that Birdman is a film I do strongly admire, although I was unable to write a review at the time of release, so I am still pleased it went away with some of the top awards. But still, I simply can’t comprehend how Boyhood lost out. Elsewhere, the majority of my predictions were spot on with J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette walking away with the Best Supporting Actor/Actress Oscars. I also correctly tipped Birdman to win for cinematography, despite The Grand Budapest Hotel‘s better use of the medium. Perhaps the award I am most pleased about is Eddie Redmayne winning Best Actor for his performance as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything, taking the one award I assumed Birdman’s Michael Keaton would take. So, that’s the Oscars over for another year then – follow Notes from the Multiplex to keep up to date with this year’s new releases, some of which will undoubtedly be in discussion for next year’s awards!

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It’s that time of year again; the red carpet is being rolled out and the stars are dressing up (‘suiting up’ if you’re Oscars host Neil Patrick Harris). Despite all the glitz and glamour, the press have been right on cue this year in their bid to spread as much controversy about the Oscar nominations as possible. Pointing out snubs, political rhetoric and claims of ‘whitewashing’ have become the name of the game for many and are for the most part correct – but hey, this is the Oscars, were you expecting a fair game? Critical bickering aside, we are most likely set for a very predictable night with, perhaps, one or two surprises thrown in for good measure. So who will take home the awards? Here are NFTM’s predictions for which film or star is most likely to win some of the major categories, alongside the nominations that should win, but will probably be overlooked by the Academy voters.

Best Picture

What will win: Boyhood
What should win: Boyhood

Despite my undying love for Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel, which topped NFTM’s end of the year list ahead of Linklater’s film, Boyhood deserves to take home the Oscar for Best Picture for the fundamental reason that, in ten/twenty/fifty years time – it is the only film on the list of nominations that will probably be remembered as an important and classic part of film history. A masterful pairing of form and content, award recognition for Linklater’s twelve-years-in-the-making, coming of age epic is pretty much guaranteed, unless Birdman swoops in from a height to wrestle the statuette from Mason and company.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Who will win: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Who should win: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

Discussion seems to be revolving solely around Keaton and Redmayne in the Best Actor category, with Steve Carell, Bradley Cooper and Benedict Cumberbatch not receiving much attention in comparison. Carell is the only one of those three who I would also like to see the Oscar awarded to, but Redmayne is my first choice by far. However, in what may prove to be another coup for Birdman: Keaton, who is tipped for recognition as the type of ‘comeback’ success story Hollywood loves, is probably more likely to walk away with the award.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Who will win: Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
Who should win: ?

I can’t decisively say who should win the award for Best Actress as the two performances I suspect I would have instinctively sided with – Julianne Moore in Still Alice or Marion Cotillard in Two Days, One Night – are from films I haven’t been able to catch up with. Whilst Rosamund Pike’s turn as the psychopathic Amy in Gone Girl and Felicity Jones’s Jane in The Theory of Everything are both brilliant, Reese Witherspoon’s brash, Oscar-baiting performance in Wild seems designed to take home the award and is probably the most likely to do so because of this, even if it is flawed.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Who will win: J.K Simmons (Whiplash)
Who should win: J.K Simmons (Whiplash)

This is perhaps the only category this year with which I would be perfectly happy for any of its nominees to be awarded the Oscar. Robert Duvall in The Judge (the best thing about that otherwise mediocre film), Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher, Ethan Hawke in Boyhood, Edward Norton in Birdman and J.K. Simmons in Whiplash all provide outstanding and memorable performances. I suspect the Academy voters will have found it as difficult to choose a winner as I did, but edging just towards the front of the pack has to be Simmons’ performance as the snarling, conductor from hell – Terence Fletcher.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Who will win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Who should win: Laura Dern (Wild)

Yes, Patricia Arquette is phenomenal as Olivia in Boyhood and completely deserving of the award she will in all likelihood receive, but I fear many will automatically overlook Laura Dern’s performance in Wild on the basis of the Boyhood’s established prestige. Admittedly, I am not a fan of Wild, but Dern’s performance provided the one spark of life that film needed to maintain my attention. Does the good outweigh the bad? Probably not, but it would be nice to see Dern finally recognised by the Academy, having only been nominated once before.

Best Cinematography

What will win: Birdman
What should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Birdman‘s non-stop tour of cinematographic wonder, which guides audiences through the dizzying spectacle of Riggan Thomson’s own personal hell, is a no-brainer when it comes to recognising great cinematography. But whereas Birdman more often than not falls into the trap of ‘all style and no substance’, Anderson’s use of cinematography in The Grand Budapest Hotel, collaborating with cinematographer Robert Yeoman, boasts a tongue-in-cheek awareness of its own artifice, ingeniously interweaving its own carefully constructed visuals into the tapestry of the narrative itself. Any film which can actually utilise aspect ratios for comic effect has to be recognised!

Best Director

Who will win: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Who should win: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

Boyhood is a monumental achievement, but above all, a directorial achievement. To have the courage and conviction to craft a project like this over a decade and to deliver a story that is both accessible and universal without being overly sentimentalised or melodramatic, is an accomplishment far beyond the work of the other directors nominated and one that simply has to be recognised by the Academy.

So there you have it, NFTM’s predictions for the major categories. How accurate will they prove to be? Find out this weekend.

Click here for all of NFTM’s reviews of films nominated for an Oscar.